Forecast of changes in the macroeconomic situation in Ukraine: smart economy of the future

Abstract

Aims: to theoretical development of methodological tools for selecting national priorities for sustainable economic development based on the concept of a smart future economy. Methodology. This article uses a systematic approach to the study of change processes in the fields of macroeconomics, analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, quantitative and qualitative scientific abstraction, comparison and analysis. Based on the modeling method, the article proposes a model for planning economic growth based on the indicators of socio-economic, investment, and innovation development of Ukraine and major countries of the world. Results. The paper proves the complexity of the problem of choosing the country's development priorities and its specialization, which is observed in many works of Ukrainian scientists and researchers from other countries. For this purpose, 40 scientific papers by foreign and domestic scholars were analyzed, and macroeconomic statistics data presented on official statistics websites were used. Based on the analyzed sources, the main problems of the socio-economic development of the country are determined, and the model provides a systematic approach to the formation and implementation of strategies for sustainable socio-economic development. The knowledge industry was developed, and a model was created for the selection of national innovative development priorities based on two main parameters: Overview of the national structure of innovative and specialized industries. The approach of information and communication platforms as a methodological tool for the formation of strategies for local socio-economic development is proposed. Scientific Novelty. With the help of the developed model, it is possible to determine the factors affecting the growth of Ukraine's GDP and forecast the growth of the country's economy. It is found that the transition to a smart economy and the use of the latest innovative smart technologies have the greatest impact on national economic growth. The proposed model for forecasting and evaluating the national socio-economic, investment, and innovation policy can provide the main directions for resource allocation and budgeting. Conclusion. The proposed proposals will contribute to the further development of an innovative program for socio-economic development of the country by applying the principles of the European concept of smart specialization to the Ukrainian economy. Implementation. The research materials can be used as methodological support for demonstrating the directions of regional socio-economic development.