Abstract
Applying directed complex network to model the main structure of product family, according to in-degree bi-logarithmic coordinate distribution curve and distribution rule of nodes of the network, in-degree evolving rule of nodes of the network is presented, analytic expression of in-degree probability density of nodes is derived. Through the analysis of relation between existing kinds of component and existing product number, an expression of the relation between kinds of component and product number is built. A forecast method of increment of component number and parts based on the increment of product is presented. As an example, the component number of industry stream turbine product family is forecasted, forecast result is verified and forecast error is analyzed.
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