Forecast method for used number of parts and components based on complex network

Abstract

Applying directed complex network to model the main structure of a product family, according to in-degree bi-logarithmic coordinate distribution curve and distribution rule of nodes of the network, in-degree evolving rule of nodes of the network is presented and analytic expression of in-degree probability density of nodes is derived. Through the analysis of the relation between existing kinds of components and existing product numbers, an expression of the relation between kinds of components and product numbers is derived. A forecast method for the increment of component numbers and parts based on the increment of products is presented. As an example, the component numbers of an industrial steam turbine product family is forecasted, forecast result verified and forecast error analyzed.