Forecast impact studies of zenith total delay data from European near real‐time GPS stations in Météo France 4DVAR

Abstract

Several networks of Global Positioning System receiving stations over Europe send their data to several processing centers to generate atmospheric Zenith Total Delay (ZTD) observations. Thanks to the efforts of the Targeting Optimal Use of Global Positioning System Humidity measurements in meteorology project, these observations combining surface pressure and total precipitable water information in the atmosphere have been delivered to the operational meteorological centers in near real‐time since 2004. This paper presents forecast impact trials of such ZTD observations in a global Four‐Dimensional Variational (4DVAR) assimilation and forecasting system. The implementation of the ZTD assimilation in the 4DVAR system is described, including a preprocessing developed specifically for the ZTD data. The preprocessing involves a time averaging procedure of the observations in order to ensure consistency with the resolution of the 4DVAR, a bias correction, and a station selection based on χ2 tests of the normality of the observation minus first‐guess differences. Three forecast trials were conducted: winter, spring, and summer 2005. These trials cover various meteorological conditions and a total of about 10 weeks of assimilation. All three trials suggest a positive impact of the ZTD data in helping constrain the synoptic circulation in 1 to 4 day forecasts. In the spring and the summer trials, the impact of the ZTD data also shows positively on the prediction of precipitation patterns as indicated by improved Quantitative Precipitation Forecast scores for total precipitation forecasts over France between +12 and +36 hours. We also assess in this paper ZTD observation and background errors.