Forecast and the estimation of the factors of the development of the world markets for cobalt

Abstract

The market of cobalt grows and has fantastic potential. On the basis of state-of-the-art reviews, the developing tendencies in allied industries of economy and author’s estimates forecasts of development of the largest producers and consumers of cobalt in China, Asia, America, Europe, Africa, etc., including the Russian market are proved. The regression model, constructed on the basis of monthly statistics of the prices during 2012– 2016 has been developed for forecasting of the prices of cobalt for the period till 2018. At the same time the choice of expected and analytical tools was based that first, justification of decisions on development of specific industries of economy has to be based on the actual data reflecting dynamic and structural processes and not to use the ready models calculated for other countries; secondly, econometric models are focused, generally on the short-term and medium term, they allow to determine the most significant parameters of economic development and provide a quantitative assessment of the happening economic processes; thirdly, longterm forecasting with use of modeling is directed to the analysis of information and development of hypotheses concerning change of parameters of fundamental factors of branch growth. The developed scenario forecast of the change in price for cobalt till 2018 on the London Metal Exchange allows to draw a conclusion that in the conditions of preservation of priorities in the global markets the situation will positively develop for the Russian and other producers focused on export, and the market of cobalt will have the considerable potential of development and, respectively, appeal to investments.