For and against European Union expansion: Examining mixed opinion on enlargement and specific countries’ entries

Abstract

European Union (EU) residents hold complex attitudes toward expanding the union not completely captured in extant models of enlargement opinion. We develop two-by-two matrices of support and opposition toward (1) enlargement and (2) a potential member’s entry. Descriptive analyses of 2006 Eurobarometer data reveal that, across two-by-two matrices for enlargement and 13 potential members’ entries, EU-25 residents often support enlargement and a potential member’s entry or oppose both. Yet, what we call ‘qualified support of enlargement’ – support for enlargement but opposition to a potential member’s entry – varies by potential and current members. Synthesizing literature on similar attitudinal combinations with research on enlargement opinion, we develop hypotheses to account for the individual- and country-level variation in qualified support of enlargement, relative to supporting enlargement and a potential member’s entry or opposing both. According to our multilevel multinomial logit results, individual-level factors such as education, political awareness, and political ideology are generally related to qualified support of enlargement; economic distance between current and potential EU members is related to the levels of qualified support of enlargement in member countries. However, attitudes toward enlargement and the entries of countries, such as Turkey, Albania, and Iceland are exceptions to some patterns. Our findings highlight the multidimensionality of EU enlargement attitudes and suggest that literature on similar attitudinal combinations should incorporate group dynamics into their models.