Abstract
This study determines the production capacity to supply food stably considering calorie intake and nutrition balance. For this, three types of mathematical models are constructed: minimum procurement cost model, minimum certainty equivalence model under procurement cost risk, and the goal programming model for achieving both sufficient food self-sufficiency and the minimum environment cost. With the analysed results, we suggest the long-term food supply plan to meet long-term consumption levels in 2025 and 2035. About 1,005 to 1,523 thousand hectares of cultivation land and 858 to 1,267 thousand farms are required in 2025, and about 941 to 1,468 thousand hectares of cultivation land and 821 to 1,241 thousand farms are required in 2035 for food security. As the total size of cultivation land and the number of farms keep decreasing each year by 0.8% and 1.8%, respectively, food security remains as a critical issue in the long-term. Thus, countermeasures are needed to sustain sufficient cultivation land and farms for food security.
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