Abstract
In this study, HPAI outbreak data and an epidemiological model were used to estimate the basic reproduction number for HPAI by region, and based on this, the risk of HPAI spread by region was compared, and regional characteristics affecting the difference in risk of HPAI spread were investigated. As a result of the analysis, it was found that the infection spread condition (basic reproduction number of 1 or more) was satisfied in all regions where the HPAI transmission rate was estimated. In addition, it was found that the size of the region and the type of poultry raising in the region had a statistically significant effect on the HPAI transmission rate. Based on the findings, the implications are presented as follows. First, more stricter quarantine measures are needed to prevent the spread of HPAI in areas where basic reproduction number and HPAI transmission rate are consistently high. Second, in order to reduce the risk of HPAI spread, it is necessary to shorten the time from identification of infected farms to culling. Third, it is necessary to further strengthen biosafety in regions with relatively small area, many duck farms and poultry, and many paddy fields.
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