Food security beyond global warming: economic and policy perspectives from Uganda

Abstract

Climate change has severe and pervasive impacts on natural systems and affects many aspects of human life. Increasing temperatures and alterations in the regimes of precipitations are adding pressure to global agricultural systems, which are already struggling to respond to expanding global demand for food. This directly translates into additional risks for poor people living in developing countries who already face precarious food security conditions. Focusing on the case of Uganda and using household data from the National Panel Survey merged with climatic data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, this paper explores the link between climate change and households’ food insecurity. By applying a generalized ordered logit model, this work provides quantitative evidence about the impact of climate variability on food and nutrition security of clustered food consumption groups of smallholder farmers. Among the different socio-economic and environmental variables affecting the households’ food security conditions, time and cross-sectional variations in the regime of precipitations play a crucial role. The results highlight that adaptation programmes aimed to reduce climate-induced food insecurity and improve coping abilities of rural communities should be site-specific and involve local communities with the aim of considering the specific risk exposure of the different agro-ecological areas.