Food security and overuse of agrochemicals: evidence from China's major grain-producing areas policy.

Abstract

China's major grain-producing areas (MGPA) policy is the core policy to ensure national food security. While achieving long-term stable growth of grain production, assessing the impact of MGPA policy on agrochemical application has important practical significance in sustainable agricultural development and environmental protection. Based on panel data of 31 provinces in China from 1997 to 2020 and taking the MGPA policy introduced in 2004 as a quasi-natural experiment, we construct a difference-in-difference (DID) model to evaluate the overall impact and dynamic effect of MGPA policy. It is found that the MGPA policy do not exacerbate chemical overuse as a whole, but significantly reduce the fertilizer use by 11% and the pesticide use by 6%. Using the event study to decompose the policy effect year by year, we find that the MGPA policy significantly increased the fertilizer and pesticide use in a short period of time. Its influence on the application amount of two chemicals began to turn negative until the fourth and sixth years of the policy implementation and became more and more obvious. We conclude the intermediate paths of MGPA policy to change planting structure, deepen agricultural division of labor, and reduce the use of agrochemicals, which were verified by the intermediary effect model. From the perspective of provincial differences, MGPA policy reduced chemical use more in provinces with large output contribution and northern provinces. In addition, the MGPA policy has reduced the amount of fertilizer application in major rice-growing provinces, but not the amount of pesticide application. Our research can provide implications for other developing countries and emerging economies where agricultural production is highly dependent on chemicals and has green agricultural transition plans.