Abstract
This paper presents a futures study of international forest trends. The study, produced as part of the Swedish Future Forest program, focuses on global changes of importance for future Swedish forest use. It is based on previous international research, policy documents, and 24 interviews with selected key experts and/or actors related to the forest sector, and its findings will provide a basis for future research priorities. The forest sector, here defined as the economic, social, and cultural contributions to life and human welfare derived from forest and forest-based activities, faces major change. Four areas stand out as particularly important: changing energy systems, emerging international climate policies, changing governance systems, and shifting global land use systems. We argue that global developments are, and will be, important for future Swedish forest use. The forest sector is in transition and forest-, energy, climate- and global land use issues are likely to become increasingly intertwined. Therefore, the “forest sector” must be disembedded and approached as an open system in interplay with other systems.
Highlights
Nordic forests have been linked to international developments for centuries
This study explores several long-term trends that are central to understanding future forest use, both globally and in Sweden
The interrelated effects of these developments on global land use are of interest as they may influence Swedish forest use, for example through competition and pricing mechanisms
Summary
Nordic forests have been linked to international developments for centuries. The expanding forest industry contributed to growing welfare, providing support for the development of the Nordic welfare states. The international competitiveness of the Nordic forest industry became an issue, as the use of recycled fibers and quick growing tree species from the South expanded [9]. This paper is the result of a futures study on international forest trends important for future Swedish forestry and forest use. The study identifies trends that the key actors related to the forest sector expect to be most important, and illuminates the nature of these trends, considering developments at least. Forestry at the Crossroads, is being carried out at the Institute of Futures Studies and explores major global trends that will affect Swedish forest use in the future
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