Abstract
In this paper, we propose a new algorithm, called FOCUSED (FOrecast Correction Using Successive prEDictions), for forecast correction of short-term wind speed predictions. We developed FOCUSED with the aim of improving the forecast of bora gusts, which frequently result in high-speed wind situations dangerous for traffic. The motivation arises from occasionally ambiguous results of the currently deployed decision support system, which aids traffic management in strong and gusty wind conditions at the coast of Croatia. The proposed correction algorithm uses characteristics of numerical weather prediction models to iteratively forecast the wind speed multiple times for the same future window. We use these iterative predictions as input features of the FOCUSED algorithm and get the corrected predictions as the output. We compared the proposed algorithm with artificial neural networks, random forests, support vector machines, and linear regression to demonstrate the superiority of the algorithm’s performance on a data set comprising five years of real data measurements at the Croatian bridge “Krk” and complementary historical forecasts by ALADIN (Aire Limitée Adaptation dynamique Développement InterNational) numerical weather prediction model.
Highlights
Bora (Bura in Croatian) is a cold, strong and gusty wind that blows along the EasternAdriatic coast and islands
As the FOCUSED algorithm substantially differs from existing wind-speed correction algorithms, we conducted three heterogeneous tests to show its potential
We provide evaluation that brings (a) statistical evaluation that confirms the potential of using previous successive forecasts as input features, (b) comparison with the widely used Autoregressive Moving Average model (ARMA) based on modelling residual errors to correct predictions, and (c) empirical evaluation that shows insights from the traffic manager’s point of view, who is the main stakeholder which will benefit from the use of this algorithm
Summary
Bora (Bura in Croatian) is a cold, strong and gusty wind that blows along the EasternAdriatic coast and islands. Bora can have a severe negative impact on road traffic security [2]. Road managers use wind forecasting models as an aid in making decisions to open or close a road for traffic or to define new speed limits. Three parameters define a critical wind situation in the context of traffic control in the Eastern Adriatic coast: wind direction, 10-min mean wind speed and 10-min maximum wind speed. For each location, these parameters define critical wind situations that vary depending on a specific terrain configuration and pavement condition (dry/wet/icy) [2]
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