The uncertainty of UTCI due to uncertainties in the determination of radiation fluxes derived from numerical weather prediction and regional climate model simulations

Abstract

In this study we examine the determination accuracy of both the mean radiant temperature (Tmrt) and the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) within the scope of numerical weather prediction (NWP), and global (GCM) and regional (RCM) climate model simulations. First, Tmrt is determined and the so-called UTCI-Fiala model is then used for the calculation of UTCI. Taking into account the uncertainties of NWP model (among others the HIgh Resolution Limited Area Model HIRLAM) output (temperature, downwelling short-wave and long-wave radiation) stated in the literature, we simulate and discuss the uncertainties of Tmrt and UTCI at three stations in different climatic regions of Europe. The results show that highest negative (positive) differences to reference cases (under assumed clear-sky conditions) of up to -21°C (9°C) for Tmrt and up to -6°C (3.5°C) for UTCI occur in summer (winter) due to cloudiness. In a second step, the uncertainties of RCM simulations are analyzed: three RCMs, namely ALADIN (Aire Limitée Adaptation dynamique Développement InterNational), RegCM (REGional Climate Model) and REMO (REgional MOdel) are nested into GCMs and used for the prediction of temperature and radiation fluxes in order to estimate Tmrt and UTCI. The inter-comparison of RCM output for the three selected locations shows that biases between 0.0 and ±17.7°C (between 0.0 and ±13.3°C) for Tmrt (UTCI), and RMSE between ±0.5 and ±17.8°C (between ±0.8 and ±13.4°C) for Tmrt (UTCI) may be expected. In general the study shows that uncertainties of UTCI, due to uncertainties arising from calculations of radiation fluxes (based on NWP models) required for the prediction of Tmrt, are well below ±2°C for clear-sky cases. However, significant higher uncertainties in UTCI of up to ±6°C are found, especially when prediction of cloudiness is wrong.