Focus on the role of forests and soils in meeting climate change mitigation goals: summary

Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are causing global climate change and decreasing the stability of the climate system. Long-term solutions to climate change will require reduction in GHG emissions as well as the removal of large quantities of GHGs from the atmosphere. Natural climate solutions (NCS), i.e., changes in land management, ecosystem restoration, and avoided conversion of habitats, have substantial potential to meet global and national greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets and contribute to the global drawdown of GHGs. However, the relative role of NCS to contribute to GHG reduction at subnational scales is not well known. We examined the potential for 12 NCS activities on natural and working lands in Oregon, USA to reduce GHG emissions in the context of the state's climate mitigation goals. We evaluated three alternative scenarios wherein NCS implementation increased across the applicable private or public land base, depending on the activity, and estimated the annual GHG reduction in carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e) attributable to NCS from 2020 to 2050. We found that NCS within Oregon could contribute annual GHG emission reductions of 2.7 to 8.3 MMT CO2e by 2035 and 2.9 to 9.8 MMT CO2e by 2050. Changes in forest-based activities including deferred timber harvest, riparian reforestation, and replanting after wildfires contributed most to potential GHG reductions (76 to 94% of the overall annual reductions), followed by changes to agricultural management through no-till, cover crops, and nitrogen management (3 to 15% of overall annual reductions). GHG reduction benefits are relatively high per unit area for avoided conversion of forests (125-400 MT CO2e ha-1). However, the existing land use policy in Oregon limits the current geographic extent of active conversion of natural lands and thus, avoided conversions results in modest overall potential GHG reduction benefits (i.e., less than 5% of the overall annual reductions). Tidal wetland restoration, which has high per unit area carbon sequestration benefits (8.8 MT CO2e ha-1 yr-1), also has limited possible geographic extent resulting in low potential (< 1%) of state-level GHG reduction contributions. However, co-benefits such as improved habitat and water quality delivered by restoration NCS pathways are substantial. Ultimately, reducing GHG emissions and increasing carbon sequestration to combat climate change will require actions across multiple sectors. We demonstrate that the adoption of alternative land management practices on working lands and avoided conversion and restoration of native habitats can achieve meaningful state-level GHG reductions.

Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are causing global climate change and decreasing the stability of the climate system. Long-term solutions to climate change will require reduction in GHG emissions as well as the removal of large quantities of GHGs from the atmosphere. Natural climate solutions (NCS), i.e., changes in land management, ecosystem restoration, and avoided conversion of habitats, have substantial potential to meet global and national greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets and contribute to the global drawdown of GHGs. However, the relative role of NCS to contribute to GHG reduction at subnational scales is not well known. We examined the potential for 12 NCS activities on natural and working lands in Oregon, USA to reduce GHG emissions in the context of the state’s climate mitigation goals. We evaluated three alternative scenarios wherein NCS implementation increased across the applicable private or public land base, depending on the activity, and estimated the annual GHG reduction in carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e) attributable to NCS from 2020 to 2050. We found that NCS within Oregon could contribute annual GHG emission reductions of 2.7 to 8.3 MMT CO2e by 2035 and 2.9 to 9.8 MMT CO2e by 2050. Changes in forest-based activities including deferred timber harvest, riparian reforestation, and replanting after wildfires contributed most to potential GHG reductions (76 to 94% of the overall annual reductions), followed by changes to agricultural management through no-till, cover crops, and nitrogen management (3 to 15% of overall annual reductions). GHG reduction benefits are relatively high per unit area for avoided conversion of forests (125–400 MT CO2e ha-1). However, the existing land use policy in Oregon limits the current geographic extent of active conversion of natural lands and thus, avoided conversions results in modest overall potential GHG reduction benefits (i.e., less than 5% of the overall annual reductions). Tidal wetland restoration, which has high per unit area carbon sequestration benefits (8.8 MT CO2e ha-1 yr-1), also has limited possible geographic extent resulting in low potential (< 1%) of state-level GHG reduction contributions. However, co-benefits such as improved habitat and water quality delivered by restoration NCS pathways are substantial. Ultimately, reducing GHG emissions and increasing carbon sequestration to combat climate change will require actions across multiple sectors. We demonstrate that the adoption of alternative land management practices on working lands and avoided conversion and restoration of native habitats can achieve meaningful state-level GHG reductions.

Boykoff and Mansfield (2008), in a recent paper in this journal, provide a detailedanalysis of the representation of climate change in the UK tabloid newspapers.They conclude that the representation of this issue in these papers ‘diverged fromthe scientific consensus that humans contribute to climate change’. That is,portrayal of climate change in tabloid newspapers contradicts the conclusions ofthe fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment (IPCC2007). Is it healthy to have the scientific consensus challenged so frequently? Butshould we worry about systematic misrepresentation of scientific consensus? Webelieve the answer to both of these questions is yes. To present regular updates onclimate change issues in the popular press is important because the changes inbehaviour needed to achieve substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissionsrequire a broad understanding of the basic facts. However, if the majority ofreaders receive misleading information, it will be difficult to achieve the level ofpublic understanding necessary to make such reductions needed to avoiddangerous climate change (Schellnhuber

Air pollution impacts economic activity, and economic activity creates air pollution. Understanding this endogenous nexus is critical as any policy designed to affect one will inevitably affect the other. My research explores both sides of this nexus. Specifically, I identify the economic effects from the implementation of an international climate agreement (the Kyoto Protocol); I determine the impact of air pollution on physical productivity and determine which pollutants are responsible for this effect; and I link urban form to vehicular emissions via the structure of road networks. The first chapter of this dissertation studies the impact of the Kyoto Protocol on the cement manufacturing industry. The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement signed in 1997 to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and mitigate the consequences of global climate change. Early studies of the effectiveness of the Kyoto Protocol have attributed it to approximately a 7-10\% reduction in global carbon dioxide emissions compared to a ``business as usual'' outcome. Given the carbon intensity of cement manufacturing, I examine the impact of the Kyoto Protocol on cement manufacturing output and carbon dioxide emissions. Using an instrumental variables difference-in-differences approach, I find that nations with binding emissions targets under the Kyoto Protocol saw a 5\% reduction in both cement manufacturing and carbon dioxide emissions from cement manufacturing compared to other nations. Based on the relative magnitude of these effects, it appears that the Kyoto Protocol may have led to technological innovation in cement manufacturing. Using data on carbon intensities for cement manufacturing, I support this notion and find further evidence that it fostered diffusion of existing, cleaner technologies from relatively more developed nations during the first phase, and technical innovation by these nations during the second phase. By examining the effect on net cement imports, I do not find evidence that the reduction in carbon dioxide emissions resulted in carbon leakage. Using estimates of the social cost of carbon from the economics literature and the results from this paper, back of the envelope calculations suggest that the Kyoto Protocol had an economic gain of \$7.4 billion from the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions from cement manufacturing alone. The second chapter of this dissertation studies the impact of air pollution on ultramarathon performance. Air pollution is known to lower worker productivity in myriad settings. However, causal inference studies using reliable air pollution data to study the effect of air pollution on physical productivity in

Economic, environmental, and technical gains from the Kyoto Protocol: Evidence from cement manufacturing

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Introduction to <i>Climate Change Adaptation in New York City: Building a Risk Management Response</i>

Professor Lord Hunt, Ladies and Gentlemen, I am delighted to open this important scientific meeting on the impacts of climate change on urban areas. As you know, the overwhelming majority of scientific opinion supports the view that human activities are changing the Earth's climate. There really

Models project that climate change is increasing the frequency of severe storm events such as hurricanes. Hurricanes are an important driver of ecosystem structure and function in tropical coastal and island regions and thus impact tropical forest carbon (C) cycling. We used the DayCent model to explore the effects of increased hurricane frequency on humid tropical forest C stocks and fluxes at decadal and centennial timescales. The model was parameterized with empirical data from the Luquillo Experimental Forest (LEF), Puerto Rico. The DayCent model replicated the well-documented cyclical pattern of forest biomass fluctuations in hurricane-impacted forests such as the LEF. At the historical hurricane frequency (60 years), the dynamic steady state mean forest biomass was 80.9 ± 0.8 Mg C/ha during the 500-year study period. Increasing hurricane frequency to 30 and 10 years did not significantly affect net primary productivity but resulted in a significant decrease in mean forest biomass to 61.1 ± 0.6 and 33.2 ± 0.2 Mg C/ha, respectively (p < 0.001). Hurricane events at all intervals had a positive effect on soil C stocks, although the magnitude and rate of change of soil C varied with hurricane frequency. However, the gain in soil C stocks was insufficient to offset the larger losses from aboveground biomass C over the time period. Heterotrophic respiration increased with hurricane frequency by 1.6 to 4.8%. Overall, we found that an increasing frequency of tropical hurricanes led to a decrease in net ecosystem production by − 0.2 ± 0.08 Mg C/ha/y to − 0.4 ± 0.04 Mg C/ha/y for 30–10-year hurricane intervals, respectively, significantly increasing the C source strength of this forest. These results demonstrate how changes in hurricane frequency can have major implications for the tropical forest C cycle and limit the potential for this ecosystem to serve as a net C sink.

On the basis of five datasets of historical observational records of surface temperature, we present a study of the worldwide annual mean surface temperature anomaly in 2014, 2015, and 2016. These gases cause an increase in global temperatures by trapping heat in the Earth's atmosphere, a process known as the greenhouse effect. The consequences of global warming are wide-ranging and can have severe impacts on both human societies and natural ecosystems. Increased heat waves, droughts, and wildfires can all be brought on by rising temperatures, posing dangers to agriculture, human health, and water supplies. Changes in precipitation patterns can result in more frequent and intense storms, floods, and hurricanes, further threatening communities and infrastructure. In addition to extreme weather events, global warming can disrupt ecosystems and biodiversity. Many species are experiencing shifts in their habitats, altered migration patterns, and changes in their life cycles. Sea levels may rise as a result of glaciers and polar ice caps melting as a result of rising temperatures. This poses a significant threat to coastal regions, increasing the risk of flooding and erosion, and potentially displacing millions of people. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is crucial for preventing global warming. Many tactics can be used to accomplish this. Switching to sustainable energy sources like solar and wind power, can help reduce carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion. Improving energy efficiency in industries, transportation, and buildings can also contribute to emission reductions. Another critical aspect is addressing deforestation and promoting sustainable land management practices. A portion of the heat radiation can be trapped and re-emitted by greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in the Earth's atmosphere, preventing it from escaping into space. Global warming is the process by which this phenomena causes an increase in the average surface temperature of the Earth. Infrared (IR) radiation is produced when solar radiation strikes the Earth's surface and is absorbed before being reemitted as thermal radiation. Greenhouse gases, particularly CO2 and CH4, are transparent to solar radiation that enters the atmosphere but absorb some of the IR radiation that leaves the atmosphere. Similar to how a greenhouse retains heat inside, this absorption and re-emission process traps heat in the atmosphere. The greenhouse effect has been exacerbated by the increased atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations brought on by human activity, particularly the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, and industrial operations. This has resulted in an enhanced trapping of heat and an overall rise in global temperatures. Utilizing the remaining four datasets, similar outcomes were attained. The longer-term warming trend and the bigger contribution from the DM component suggest that warmer years like 2014-2016 may occur more frequently in the near future. We draw the conclusion that the alleged warming hiatus has ended.

Online shopping habits and the potential for reductions in carbon dioxide emissions from passenger transport

Peatlands play an important role in global climate regulation and carbon (C) cycling. To evaluate the potential effect of peatland restoration on greenhouse gas (GHG) emission mitigation, and preservation of peat C stock or enhancement of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) sequestration, we used a manual chamber method to measure soil heterotrophic respiration CO2 emissions (Rhet) and ecosystem GHG emissions. Ecosystem emission measurements included methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions and forest floor CO2 emissions (Rfloor) in forested peatlands or ecosystem CO2 emissions (Reco) in peatlands without tree cover. Measurements of Reco and Rfloor were conducted using chambers that included all vegetation present in the ecosystem or ground vegetation, respectively. Rhet measurements were performed after the removal of ground vegetation and litter layer and trenching of the roots. In addition to GHG emission measurements, C input into the soil with vegetation litter was estimated, and environmental variables (including soil temperature and moisture, groundwater level, water chemistry and others) that potentially can affect the magnitude of GHG emissions were monitored. The monitoring was initiated in 2023 and continued in 2024 at seven study sites located in raised bogs within the hemiboreal vegetation zone of Europe, specifically in Latvia. Study sites included different habitats of pristine peatlands, restored peatlands through rewetting, and areas in both strong and weak drainage impact zones where the development of woody vegetation characteristic of the forest ecosystem has occurred. Preliminary results of GHG emission measurements show that the annualized monthly mean ecosystem gross GHG emissions, expressed in CO2 equivalents (excluding C sequestration by vegetation), ranged from 9.7 to 45.9 t CO2 eq. ha&amp;#8722;1 year&amp;#8722;1 in degraded (drained) peatlands, while in restored (including rewetted) peatland GHG emissions ranged from 11.0 to 25.3 t CO2 eq. ha&amp;#8722;1 year&amp;#8722;1.Acknowledgements: The research was conducted within the scope of the European Commission LIFE Climate Action Programme Project &amp;#8220;Peatland restoration for greenhouse gas emission reduction and carbon sequestration in the Baltic Sea region&amp;#8221; (LIFE21 - CCM - LV - LIFE PeatCarbon, Project number: 101074396).

Assessment of the energy utilization and carbon dioxide emission reduction potential of the microbial fertilizers. A case study on “farm-to-fork” production chain of Turkish desserts and confections

This study aims to evaluate the impact of the Abrace o Pantanal (Embrace the Pantanal) project on reducing carbon dioxide emissions caused by forest fires in the Pantanal biome in Brazil. The project consists of early detection and monitoring of wildfires using high-resolution cameras and satellite data, aided by the Pantera platform, which facilitates communication and the mobilization of firefighting brigades. The project covers 2.5 million hectares of the Pantanal biome, with five cameras installed in the Serra do Amolar region, an area severely affected by wildfires in 2020. To measure the project’s impact on reducing carbon dioxide emissions, we used the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines to calculate gross emissions from forest fires. We also analyzed burned area per year and land cover in the project area from 2016 to 2020 using MapBiomas Fire Collection 1 and Land Use and Land Cover Maps (Collection 6) from Mapbiomas. Our results show that the project reduced burned areas and emissions from fires, with highly discrepant results in 2020 due to catastrophic fires. To verify the concrete impacts of the project, we propose measuring the number of fire outbreaks detected, conducting interviews with firefighters, and comparing the results from 2021 to 2025 with the previous period. The average burned area and carbon dioxide emissions from 2016 to 2020 will be a reference value. Nevertheless, other factors may also affect the frequency and intensity of forest fires, such as climate change, demographic changes, and regulatory and political pressure. Therefore, it is impossible to establish a strict causal relationship between the project and the reduction of burned areas and emissions. In conclusion, the Abrace o Pantanal project has shown promising results in reducing carbon dioxide emissions from forest fires in the Pantanal biome. Continued monitoring and evaluation of the project’s impact is crucial to understanding the effectiveness of early detection and firefighting measures in preserving the Pantanal’s biodiversity and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Community empowerment (through the appropriation of the technology) has played a major role in the development of the project and its overall impact.

With growing climate change concerns, depleting natural resources and decrease in oil and gas prices, it is more vital than ever to efficiently manage natural resource allocation. Methane, the key component in natural gas and a raw material for numerous chemicals, is Qatar's more abundant resource. Natural gas can be monetized through many alternative paths. It can be sold as natural gas, either through pipelines or in liquefied form, or converted into diverse sets of fuels and materials using many alternative processing technologies. In the meantime, concerns of the effects of increased carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere, majority of which are emitted from large industrial stationary sources and fuel consumption, have caused the global society to seek ambitious emission reduction targets.While on the one hand natural gas provides a clean fuel associated and enables carbon dioxide emissions through fuel switching globally, its local processing is associated with significant footprints. In the case of Qatar and its small population, this has resulted in very high per capita emissions. Most of the emissions are stationary and spatially concentrated in industrial clusters, where they originate mainly from natural gas processing, hydrocarbon processing, petrochemicals and metals production, and power and water generation.The industrial sector is challenged to balance profit making activities from natural gas monetization with increasing pressures to reduce overall carbon dioxide emissions. Conventional design of industrial parks centering on natural gas are carried out in an ad-hoc process that depends on the expertise of designers, available capital, market demand and regulations. Reduction methods in the past have been limited in technology, energy integration or geographical proximity to apply carbon capture and sequestration (CCS).Recently, carbon integration (Al-Mohannadi and Linke, 2015a,b) has been introduced as a systematic approach to determine the most efficient carbon dioxide reduction options in industrial parks by considering multiple carbon dioxide sources, potential carbon sinks, the layout of the city and the associated costs of transmission and conditioning. Carbon integration looks into the various conversion routes that take carbon dioxide into value added products, which can be converted chemically, biologically or through geographical utilization such as Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) applications. This creates incentives to reduce carbon emissions, to create synergies between firms and to produce additional products in the cluster, while adhering to required emission reduction targets.Beyond focusing on low cost carbon dioxide emissions reduction, the broader design challenge for a natural gas monetizing industrial cluster is to identify the most promising configurations from the vast number of alternatives that exist from the possible combinations of many alternative natural gas monetization processes, and the many alternative carbon management options that could be applied, whilst exploiting synergies between natural gas conversion and carbon management. Most previous works have focused on different aspects of the overall problem: optimizing gas conversion processes, and managing carbon dioxide emissions reductions. Very few works have considered monetization in industrial clusters, and there is no published work on how to systemically make gas monetization decisions under carbon dioxide emissions constraints.This work introduces the first systematic approach to allocate natural resource under carbon dioxide footprint constraints. The approach yields integrated natural gas and carbon dioxide management schemes that yield the maximum profit for the given gas monetization and carbon dioxide management options and constraints that exist in the industrial cluster. The work explores different carbon dioxide emission reduction scenarios; expansion plans and determines most profitable product mix from an industrial cluster. By taking into consideration the tradeoff between environmental performance and potential profitability of natural resource allocation, it provides valuable information to decision makers from an optimization based tool. Policy makers and regulators can use the tool for developing strategies and for planning of more sustainable industrial clusters, parks or cities.The work is illustrated using a case study to demonstrate the application of the method on industrial cluster resembling a configuration of gas monetization options often observed in oil and gas centered economies.KeywordsResource Allocation, Climate Change, Carbon Dioxide emissions, Carbon Integration, Natural Gas Allocation, Gas Monetization, Carbon Reduction, Process Integration, Industrial Parks, Planning, Modeling, Optimization.ReferencesAl-Mohannadi, D.M., P. Linke (2015). On the Systematic Carbon Integration of Industrial Parks for Climate Footprint Reduction. Journal of Cleaner Production, DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.05.094.Al-Mohannadi, D.M., S.K. Bishnu, P. Linke, S.Y. Alnouri (2015b). Systematic Multi-Period Carbon Integration in an Industrial City. Chemical Engineering Transactions 45, 1219–1224.