Fluctuations in Chevron's Share Price in the Context of the Russia-Ukraine War

Abstract

The Russia-Ukraine war led to disruptions in the global energy supply chain and increased inflation. Western countries imposed sanctions to restrict Russian energy exports, triggering market shocks. This essay analyzes how the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine on February 24, 2022 may affect stock markets and energy markets throughout the world. The article selects the closing price of Chevron's stock from January 3, 2011 to July 28, 2023 as the raw data, and uses an ARIMA model to analyze the changes in Chevron's stock price and demonstrate the war between Russia and Ukraine's effects on it from multiple perspectives. It has been discovered that geopolitical developments may possess a significant short-term influence on stock values, but over time, the market gradually shifts its focus from a single event to a wider range of market factors, thus weakening the impact of geopolitical events on stock prices. This paper aims to fill the research gap on the stock price reactions of oil and gas companies in the face of conflict by analyzing the stock price changes of the energy company Chevron to show how global developments affect the American energy market, and to aid investors in evaluating the risks and possibilities, as well as to shed light on the market volatility and long- and short-term impacts of the energy sector. Finally, the paper provides investment recommendations that summarize the main points of the full paper.