Abstract
Iraq relies greatly on the flow of the Euphrates and Tigris Rivers and their tributaries. Five tributaries namely Khabour, Greater Zab, Lesser Zab, AlAdhiam and Daylia, which are the major tributaries of Tigris River, sustain Northern Iraq Region, a semi-arid, mainly a pastureland. These tributaries contribute about 24 km3 of water annually. The discharge in the tributaries, in recent times, has been suffering increasing variability contributing to more severe droughts and floods apparently due to climate change. This is because there were no dams constructed outside Iraq previously. For an appropriate appreciation, Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to evaluate the impact of climate change on their discharge for a half-centennial lead time to 2046-2064 and a centennial lead time to 2080-2100. The suitability of the model was first evaluated, and then, outputs from six GCMs were incorporated to evaluate the impacts of climate change on water resources under three emission scenarios: A1B, A2 and B1. The results showed that water resources are expected to decrease with time.
Highlights
There is growing evidence that climate change would boost extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones, floods, droughts and bushfires affecting water resources of a region [1]
The results showed that water resources are expected to decrease with time
This study aims to fill that gap, and to achieve that objective, the mathematical modeling tool Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used since it has demonstrated satisfactory performance when applied to other similar regions in the past [8]
Summary
There is growing evidence that climate change would boost extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones, floods, droughts and bushfires affecting water resources of a region [1]. The effects on the hydrological cycle are mainly through the change of evapotranspiration and precipitation [2] [3] These modifications, in extreme cases, manifest as severe droughts and floods, which could. The flow of the two main rivers started to decrease This is due to the effect of climate change on the region where what was used to be known as the Fertile Crescent started to die 30 years ago. This fact encourages the riparian countries to build dams to safeguard their needs for water. The main five tributaries of Tigris River are the backbone of water resources of northern region Iraq. This study aims to fill that gap, and to achieve that objective, the mathematical modeling tool SWAT is used since it has demonstrated satisfactory performance when applied to other similar regions in the past [8]
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