Abstract
Kurdistan in northern Iraq, a semi-arid region, predominantly a pastureland, is nourished by Lesser Zab, which is the second major tributary of Tigris River. The discharge in the tributary, in recent times, has been experiencing increasing variability contributing to more severe droughts and floods supposedly due to climate change. For a proper appreciation, SWAT model has been used to assess the impact of climate change on its hydrological components for a half-centennial lead time to 2046-2064 and a centennial lead time to 2080-2100. The suitability of the model was first evaluated, and then, outputs from six GCMs were incorporated to evaluate the impacts of climate change on water resources under three emission scenarios: A1B, A2 and B1. The results showed worsening water resources regime.
Highlights
There is mounting evidence that climate change would enhance extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones, floods, droughts and bushfires impacting on water resources of a region [1]
The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was satisfactorily applied to estimate the blue and green water flows for the Lesser Zab basin
The results of calibration and validation of the SWAT model at two hydrological stations demonstrated that simulated data were in reasonable agreement with the measured data
Summary
There is mounting evidence that climate change would enhance extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones, floods, droughts and bushfires impacting on water resources of a region [1]. The impact on the hydrological cycle is mainly through the alteration of evapotranspiration and precipitation [2] [3]. These alterations often manifest as severe droughts and floods imparting greater variability in river discharge and soil moisture. A tributary of Tigris River, Lesser Zab, is the backbone of water resources of Kurdistan region in northern Iraq.
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