Flood susceptibility mapping by ensemble evidential belief function and binomial logistic regression model on river basin of eastern India

Abstract

Flooding is the overflow of water from stream, river, lake and sea that occurs all over the world and has disastrous effects on human society and environment. Frequent severe flood event in eastern India cause of death and damages every year so, the development of flood susceptibility method is needed for identifying the flood vulnerability areas to reduce the damages. Techniques of Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographical Information System (GIS) can help to flood susceptibility modeling by the accrued and analyzing huge amount of data in short time. The main objectives of this study are to determine the effectiveness of Evidence Belief Function (EBF), binomial Logistic Regression (LR) and ensemble of EBF and LR (EBF-LR) model with RS and GIS techniques for flood susceptibility mapping and spatial prediction of flood-susceptible areas in the Koiya river basin of West Bengal, India. Eight flood conditioning factors; Land use and land cover (LULC), soil, rainfall, normalized differences vegetation index (NDVI), distance to river, elevation, topographic wetness index (TWI) and stream power index (SPI) have been used, and total 264 historical flooding points were mapped, and randomly divided in to training (70%) and validating (30%) dataset. Flood susceptibility map has been generated by applying EBF, LR and ensemble EBF-LR method with the help of training and eight causative factors dataset. The maps have been divided in to six classes; extremely low, very low, low, moderate, high and very high. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve has been used to accuracy assessment of the susceptibility map, and the area under curve (AUC) disclosures 87.9%, 85.2% and 84.1% prediction rate for the EBF-LR, EBF and LR model, respectively. This study is helpful to flood management program, dissection makers and planning in local administrative level.