Flood Simulations Using a Sensor Network and Support Vector Machine Model

Abstract

This study aims to couple the support vector machine (SVM) model with a hydrometeorological wireless sensor network to simulate different types of flood events in a montane basin. The model was tested in the mid-latitude montane basin of Vydra in the Šumava Mountains, Central Europe, featuring complex physiography, high dynamics of hydrometeorological processes, and the occurrence of different types of floods. The basin is equipped with a sensor network operating in headwaters along with the conventional long-term monitoring in the outlet. The model was trained and validated using hydrological observations from 2011 to 2021, and performance was assessed using metrics such as R2, NSE, KGE, and RMSE. The model was run using both hourly and daily timesteps to evaluate the effect of timestep aggregation. Model setup and deployment utilized the KNIME software platform, LibSVM library, and Python packages. Sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the optimal configuration of the SVR model parameters (C, N, and E). Among 125 simulation variants, an optimal parameter configuration was identified that resulted in improved model performance and better fit for peak flows. The sensitivity analysis demonstrated the robustness of the SVR model, as different parameter variations yielded reasonable performances, with NSE values ranging from 0.791 to 0.873 for a complex hydrological year. Simulation results for different flood scenarios showed the reliability of the model in reconstructing different types of floods. The model accurately captured trend fitting, event timing, peaks, and flood volumes without significant errors. Performance was generally higher using a daily timestep, with mean metric values R2 = 0.963 and NSE = 0.880, compared to mean R2 = 0.913 and NSE = 0.820 using an hourly timestep, for all 12 flood scenarios. The very good performance even for complex flood events such as rain-on-snow floods combined with the fast computation makes this a promising approach for applications.