Abstract
Abstract. Pakistan is prone to natural hazards including floods, in particular, affecting millions of people each year across the country. Patterns from recent years suggest the intensity of flooding are increasing and may continue more aggressively during the coming years because of increased magnitude of the monsoon rains and identified climatic changes in the region. Mapping of flood hazard is essential for planning and mitigation purpose. However, only flood hazard mapping is not sufficient to assess the magnitude of risk to lives and property. Risk mapping is an integral part of pre and post disaster management. Furthermore, the Earth Observation (EO) data could be helpful to update flood risk maps time to time by covering many aspects e.g. population concentration areas, critical infrastructure and commercial areas, to enhance the preparedness planning and mitigation measure against risk of flood. Pakistan has experienced the devastating flood in 2010 due to unexpected heavy rainfall in the monsoon season with enormous losses to property lives and infrastructure in several districts. The Union council Agra, District Charsadda was among the affected most districts by riverine and flash floods. Additionally, growing population in flood plains is another threat to the district. However, to cope with this situation there is immense need to detect risk index to prevent further damages caused by such floods. This study aims to prepare the hazard, vulnerability and risk index for River Kabul and Swat catchment area of union council Agra, Charsadda. the flood risk was identified, and risk index maps were prepared by executing a methodology for assessing risk, based on the physical exposure of the flood hazard, vulnerability of people, and the exposure of critical assets to flood water. Explicitly, spatial flood risk index maps were produced with the help of analytical spatial modeling by considering the areas exposed to flood hazard, morphological characteristics and socio-economic indicators. The produced flood risk maps were verified through visual examination through 3D city flood maps. Results illustrate that the areas of higher flood risk overlapped with the areas of high flood hazard along with high population density and socio-economic exposure to vulnerability.
Highlights
1.1 Background of the studyNatural hazards are the events, occurred naturally due to some physical or climatic changes, but when it interacts with the communities and caused damage to live and property, it is known as natural disasters
Out of 26,290 populations; 8,724 peoples were at risk to 30 years flood return period with moderate vulnerability ranking
The study results revel that union council (UC) Agra is severely vulnerable to flood hazard by reason of its geographical location and lack of pre-disaster preparedness activities
Summary
Natural hazards are the events, occurred naturally due to some physical or climatic changes, but when it interacts with the communities and caused damage to live and property, it is known as natural disasters. The impact of disasters is increasing rapidly since last decade of nineteenth century in developing countries due to low resilience. Floods are frequent natural disaster all over the world which could cause serious threat to human lives and properties.it is one of the most serious and devastating natural hazard as most of the population in the world prefer to live along river basin or valleys. The South Asian countries are severely exposed to flood events firstly, due to the impacts of climate changes and secondly, because of rapidly growing population along water bodies. The severity of floods increased much more as compare to past in last few decades for the reason of climate changes and urbanization
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