Abstract
Disastrous floods in the twin cities of Nogales, Arizona, USA, and Nogales, Sonora, Mexico (collectively referred to as Ambos Nogales) occur annually in response to monsoonal summer rains. Flood-related hazards include property damage, impairment to sewage systems, sewage discharge, water contamination, erosion, and loss of life. Flood risk, particularly in Nogales, Sonora, is amplified by informal, “squatter” settlements in the watershed floodplain and associated development and infrastructure. The expected increase in precipitation intensity, resulting from climate change, poses further risk to flooding therein. We explore binational community perceptions of flooding, preferences for watershed management, and potential actions to address flooding and increase socio-ecological resilience in Ambos Nogales using standardized questionnaires and interviews to collect data about people and their preferences. We conducted 25 semi-structured interviews with local subject matter experts and gathered survey responses from community members in Ambos Nogales. Though survey response was limited, expected frequencies were high enough to conduct Chi-squared tests of independence to test for statistically significant relationships between survey variables. Results showed that respondents with previous experience with flooding corresponded with their level of concern about future floods. Additionally, respondents perceived greater flood-related risks from traveling across town and damage to vehicles than from inundation or damages to their homes or neighborhoods. Binationally, women respondents felt less prepared for future floods than men. On both sides of the border, community members and local experts agreed that Ambos Nogales lacks adequate preparation for future floods. To increase preparedness, they recommended flood risk education and awareness campaigns, implementation of green infrastructure, additional stormwater infrastructure (such as drainage systems), enhanced flood early warning systems, and reduction of flood flows through regulations to reduce the expansion of hard surfaces. This study contributes systematic collection of information about flood risk perceptions across an international border, including novel data regarding risks related to climate change and gender-based assessments of flood risk. Our finding of commonalities across both border communities, in perceptions of flood risk and in the types of risk reduction solutions recommended by community members, provides clear directions for flood risk education, outreach, and preparedness, as well as measures to enhance cross-border cooperation.
Highlights
Global climate models project profound changes in the climate of the US–Mexico border
Most interviewees believed that the cities of Ambos Nogales are not prepared for future floods and stated that community members may doubt city preparedness due to frequent flooding events and lack of protection from stormwater (n = 9)
Our results showed few differences between nations in terms of flood risk perception and preparedness
Summary
Global climate models project profound changes in the climate of the US–Mexico border. Compared with the 1971–2000 historical record, the projections include as much as a 20% decrease in annual precipitation, 4–5 °C increases in annual average temperatures, by 2041–2070, and increases of a month or more of days with maximum daily temperatures greater than 38 °C (100°F) (Wilder et al 2013); these changes will lead impacts of varying severity, depending on differences in the on socio-economic status of border communities This borderland region reflects distinctive social, political, and environmental issues, including climatic extremes of heat and drought, water quantity and quality issues, land-use change, rapid population growth, human migration, drug trafficking and militarization of the border, and social and environmental impacts of the newly constructed/reinforced border wall (Freimund 2020; Lara-Valencia and Diaz-Montemayor 2010; Norman et al 2012a; Wilder et al 2020; WRI 2020). The combination of population growth, urbanization, variation in precipitation, and climate change may increase flood intensity and heighten flood risk to those living on both sides of the watershed (Wilder et al 2012)
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