Flood Frequency Analysis under Nonstationary Modeling in the Gorganrood River Basin, Iran

Abstract

The nonstationary hydrologic processes due to climate variability and intensification of human activities are challenging and questionable for researchers. This study investigates nonstationary partial duration series (PDS) records for the period 1971–2017 at 14 hydrological stations across the Gorganrood River Basin, Iran. The Gorganrood Basin is very diverse in terms of climate such as humid, semihumid, Mediterranean, semiarid, and arid climates. Change points are analyzed using the Pettitt technique. Trends of PDS are detected using the Mann–Kendall method. The nonstationarity of the PDS series is examined by generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS). Results indicate that abrupt changes are significant for the PDS series in the Gorganrood River Basin. Change points have a considerable effect on trend detection, and these may be attributed to the fact that an abrupt increase or decrease in mean values affects trend changes. In addition, the GAMLSS results showed that the most suitable performance distribution was LNO distribution and then RGE distribution in the Gorganrood River Basin. On other hand, the GAMLSS model and the Pettitt test have good capability in detecting stationary and nonstationary PDS series.