FloMan-MF: Floodplain Management for the Moor Frog − a simulation model for amphibian conservation in dynamic wetlands

Abstract

We present a modeling approach to assess the impact of different conservation management options on the population dynamics of the moor frog (Rana arvalis, Amphibia, Anura) in dynamic river floodplains. The model is targeted at supporting amphibian conservation actions within floodplain management efforts for human flood protection. FloMan-MF is an individual-based, spatially explicit simulation model that combines three aspects: the hydrological dynamics of the landscape influenced by floods, frog reproductive behavior modeled through migration and selection of suitable reproduction sites (ponds), and population structure and trajectory over time. We validated each of the three systems and applied the baseline scenario to a two-year case study conducted in the Middle Elbe River floodplain (Germany). The FloMan-MF model aims to identify suitable compositions of floodplain ponds and habitat characteristics to optimize the reproductive habitat for moor frogs in a degraded floodplain. Therefore, to show potential applications of the model, we simulated floodplain habitat degradation and five different management scenarios. The population responded differently to each of the simulated management actions, ranging from rapid extinction to recovery with low numbers of individuals. The partly unexpected results reveal complex interactions in species-habitat interactions over time. According to our results, the establishment of dynamic temporary ponds seems to be a basic condition for population persistence of this species and can be realized within floodplain management activities. Extending the rationale and basic design of FloMan-MF to other amphibian species living in floodplains is straightforward.