Abstract
Pakistan is a flood-prone country and almost every year, it is hit by floods of varying magnitudes. This study was conducted to generate a flash flood map using analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and frequency ratio (FR) models in the ArcGIS 10.6 environment. Eight flash-flood-causing physical parameters were considered for this study. Five parameters were based on the digital elevation model (DEM), Advanced Land Observation Satellite (ALOS), and Sentinel-2 satellite, including distance from the river and drainage density slope, elevation, and land cover, respectively. Two other parameters were geology and soil, consisting of different rock and soil formations, respectively, where both layers were classified based on their resistance against water percolation. One parameter was rainfall. Rainfall observation data obtained from five meteorological stations exist close to the Chitral District, Pakistan. According to its significant importance in the occurrence of a flash flood, each criterion was allotted an estimated weight with the help of AHP and FR. In the end, all the parameters were integrated using weighted overlay analysis in which the influence value of the drainage density was given the highest value. This gave the output in terms of five flood risk zones: very high risk, high risk, moderate risk, low risk, and very low risk. According to the results, 1168 km2, that is, 8% of the total area, showed a very high risk of flood occurrence. Reshun, Mastuj, Booni, Colony, and some other villages were identified as high-risk zones of the study area, which have been drastically damaged many times by flash floods. This study is pioneering in its field and provides policy guidelines for risk managers, emergency and disaster response services, urban and infrastructure planners, hydrologists, and climate scientists.
Highlights
Flood disasters have become the most frequent natural phenomenon due to climate change and environmental factors
Flood susceptibility mapping is an approach for making plans and managing prehazards, which is needed to decrease the risk factors
This study highlighted the analysis of flood vulnerability based on decision making approach, i.e., analytic hierarchy process and frequency ratio
Summary
Flood disasters have become the most frequent natural phenomenon due to climate change and environmental factors. Especially in agricultural areas and infrastructure sectors near rivers. This phenomenon may be due to no proper mapping or preventive measures or different parameters, such as the drainage density and slope. Some human factors affect recurrent floods, among which are changes in land use, channel manipulation, construction of bridges, barrages, agriculture practices in river beds, and deforestation [6,7,8]. Initial measures should be taken to minimize flood hazard damage. Such susceptibility analysis needs to be done, and risk analysis should be performed as early as possible [9,10]
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