Five-dimensional assessment of China's centralized and distributed photovoltaic potential: From solar irradiation to CO2 mitigation

Abstract

Owing to China's escalating demand for renewable energy and carbon emissions reduction, and given its prominent position as one of the fastest-growing nations in photovoltaic (PV) development, a comprehensive assessment of the potential of both centralized and distributed photovoltaic systems in China is crucial. However, current research on PV potential assessment presents several challenges. Therefore, this study presents a five-dimensional assessment model, encompassing geographical, technical, economic, CO2 mitigation, and realizable potential, to systematically map China's centralized photovoltaic (CPV) and distributed photovoltaic (DPV) potential. The findings underscore the vast PV potential across the country, with areas of 3.11 million km2 and 252.72 thousand km2 deemed suitable for CPV and DPV development, respectively. This corresponds to a technical potential of 416,383.27 and 28,261.53 TWh/yr for CPV and DPV, respectively. Furthermore, this study explored the economic potential of CPV and DPV, revealing that the generation costs of both CPV and DPV in China are in proximity to the feed-in tariffs. With technological advancements and economies of scale, a broader PV potential is projected to be economically feasible by 2030. Full implementation of the current economic potential can yield an annual CO2 mitigation of 54.20 and 8.39 gigatonnes (Gt) using CPV and DPV, respectively. Notably, China's PV potential exhibits distinct regional heterogeneity, with CPV potential concentrated primarily in the western region and DPV potential distributed predominantly across the eastern provinces. This study identified the most resource-intensive areas in the western region of Inner Mongolia for CPV and in the coastal regions of Guangdong and Shandong provinces for DPV. Considering policy imperatives and the development status, China's PV sector holds tremendous potential to significantly contribute to carbon reduction targets. Based on the findings, policy recommendations are proposed, emphasizing the imperative of jointly developing CPV and DPV systems, as well as implementing phased and planned growth strategies for PV growth.