Five-year change in body mass index category of childhood and the establishment of an obesity prediction model

Yuelin Sun,Jinjie Xu,Jingyang Bi,Yufang Xing,Xianghe Ping,Qiqiang Shen,Jingyu Liu,Zhouqiao Zhao,Xiaoxia Zhang,Junfeng Liu,Zhaoxia Wang

doi:10.1038/s41598-020-67366-y

Yuelin Sun, Jinjie Xu + Show 9 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-67366-y

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Journal: Scientific Reports	Publication Date: Jul 16, 2020
Citations: 3	License type: open-access

Affiliation: Yantai University, Peking University

Abstract

The prevalence of childhood obesity in China has recently become increasingly severe, and intervention measures are needed to stop its growth. Currently, there is a lack of assessment and prediction methods for childhood obesity. We develop a predictive model that uses currently measured predictors [gender, age, urban/rural, height and body mass index (BMI)] to quantify children’s probabilities of belonging to one of four BMI category 5 years later and identify the high-risk group for possible intervention. A total of 88,980 students underwent a routine standard physical examination and were reexamined 5 years later to complete the study. The full model shows that boys, urban residence and height have positive effects and that age has a negative effect on transition to the overweight or obese category along with significant BMI effects. Our model correctly predicts BMI categories 5 years later for 70% of the students. From 2018 to 2023, the prevalence of obesity in rural boys and girls is expected to increase by 4% and 2%, respectively, while that in urban boys and girls is expected to remain unchanged. Predictive models help us assess the severity of childhood obesity and take targeted interventions and treatments to prevent it.

Highlights

With the rapid growth of the social economy and lifestyle changes, childhood overweight and/or obesity prevalence is increasing globally at an alarming pace, which has greatly increased public health concerns.1,2 The prevalence of childhood obesity in China has increased rapidly in the past two decades
We conducted a 5-year follow-up study on primary school students in Yantai, China, to establish a reliable predictive model to quantify the probability of each student being in a certain body mass index (BMI) category after 5 years
Four BMI categories; [2] establish an efficient overweight/obesity probability model with improved predictive performance; and [3] identify the high-risk group through the definition of a joint high-risk domain based on the significant predictors

Summary

Background

With the rapid growth of the social economy and lifestyle changes, childhood overweight and/or obesity prevalence is increasing globally at an alarming pace, which has greatly increased public health concerns. The prevalence of childhood obesity in China has increased rapidly in the past two decades. A number of studies on the prevalence of childhood obesity are available, few studies have quantified the joint impacts of recognized predictors of obesity after a specified number of years (the time window for implementing an intervention). We conducted a 5-year follow-up study on primary school students in Yantai, China, to establish a reliable predictive model to quantify the probability of each student being in a certain BMI category after 5 years. Four BMI categories; [2] establish an efficient overweight/obesity probability model with improved predictive performance (e.g., compared to that using only the BMI categories form the beginning of the study); and [3] identify the high-risk group through the definition of a joint high-risk domain based on the significant predictors

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