Epidemiology and prediction of overweight and obesity among children and adolescents aged 7-18 years in China from 1985 to 2019

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Objective: To analyze and predict the epidemic trend of overweight and obesity among children and adolescents aged 7-18 years in China from 1985 to 2019. Methods: Data were collected from the Chinese National Survey on Students Constitution and Health in 1985, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2014, and 2019 with the sample size of 409 945, 204 931, 209 209, 234 420, 215 317, 214 353, and 212 711, respectively. Overweight and obesity were evaluated according to the "classification standard of the weight index value of overweight and obesity screening for Chinese school-age children and adolescents" of the Working Group on Obesity in China (WGOC). The detection rate and average annual growth rate of overweight and obesity, and single obesity among children and adolescents aged 7-18 years were calculated, and ArcGis10.6 software was used to analyze the difference in the prevalence of overweight and obesity among children and adolescents in different regions in 2019. Polynomial regression function was used to fit the prevalence and average annual growth rate of overweight and obesity, and single obesity among children and adolescents from 1985 to 2019, and to predict the prevalence of overweight and obesity and single obesity among children and adolescents in China. Results: In 2019, the total prevalence of overweight and obesity among children and adolescents aged 7-18 years in China was 23.4%, and the prevalence of single obesity was 9.6%. The prevalence of overweight and obesity among urban children and adolescents was higher than that in rural areas (25.4% vs. 21.5%), and the prevalence in boys was higher than that in girls (28.4% vs. 18.4%) (both P values<0.001). In 2019, there was a large regional disparity in the prevalence of overweight and obesity in different provinces, with the lowest in Guangdong (12.2%) and the highest in Shandong (38.9%), and the high epidemic areas were mainly concentrated in North China and Northeast China. From 1985 to 2019, the prevalence of overweight and obesity among children and adolescents aged 7-18 years in China increased from 1.2% to 23.4%, with an increase of 18.1 times, while the prevalence of obesity alone increased from 0.1% to 9.6%, with an increase of 75.6 times. The prevalence of overweight and obesity in urban boys, urban girls, rural boys and rural girls increased from 1.3%, 1.5%, 0.5%, and 1.6% in 1985 to 31.2%, 19.4%, 25.6%, and 17.4% in 2019, with an increase of 22.3, 11.7, 54.2, and 10.1 times, respectively. According to the prediction model, the prevalence of overweight and obesity among children and adolescents aged 7-18 years in China will increase from 23.4% in 2019 to 32.7% in 2030, and the prevalence of obesity alone will increase from 9.6% in 2019 to 15.1% in 2030. The growth of rural children and adolescents is obvious. By 2025, the prevalence of overweight and obesity among rural children and adolescents in China will comprehensively exceed that of urban, and there will be an "urban-rural reversal" phenomenon. At the same time, the prevalence of children's obesity in China's low, medium and high epidemic areas will also continue to increase. By 2035, the prevalence of overweight and obesity among children and adolescents in medium epidemic areas will exceed that in high epidemic areas, and there will be a "provincial reversal" phenomenon. Conclusion: From 1985 to 2019, the overweight and obesity of children and adolescents in China will continue to grow rapidly with large regional differences.