Fish die-offs are concurrent with thermal extremes in north temperate lakes

Abstract

As environmental temperatures continue to rise and organisms experience novel and potentially lethal conditions1–5, the possibility of increased mass mortality events for animal populations appears likely1,6. Yet, due to die-off rarity and unpredictability, there have been few large-scale attempts to quantify the relationship between mass die-offs and local environmental temperatures. Here, we address this issue by analysing a database of 502 freshwater fish die-offs combined with lake-specific temperature profiles simulated for north temperate lake ecosystems. Die-offs driven by extreme summer conditions occurred disproportionately in lakes with warmer average surface temperatures and during periods of extreme heat. In contrast, we observed no relationships between current thermal extremes and die-offs attributed to infectious disease or winter environmental conditions. We forecast fish die-offs driven by summer environmental conditions to double by mid-century for north temperate lakes (2041–2059) and to increase more than fourfold by late century (2081–2099), particularly at southern latitudes. These results expose a direct link between novel temperature regimes and the increased probability of catastrophic ecological events in freshwater ecosystems. Mass summertime fish die-offs across 359 Wisconsin lakes are attributed to high lake temperatures during periods of extreme heat, while infectious disease and winter conditions are shown to be poor predictors. Die-offs are projected to double by 2050 and quadruple by 2100 in north temperate lakes.