Abstract
BackgroundUsing current climate models, regional-scale changes for Florida over the next 100 years are predicted to include warming over terrestrial areas and very likely increases in the number of high temperature extremes. No uniform definition of a heat wave exists. Most past research on heat waves has focused on evaluating the aftermath of known heat waves, with minimal consideration of missing exposure information.ObjectivesTo identify and discuss methods of handling and imputing missing weather data and how those methods can affect identified periods of extreme heat in Florida.MethodsIn addition to ignoring missing data, temporal, spatial, and spatio-temporal models are described and utilized to impute missing historical weather data from 1973 to 2012 from 43 Florida weather monitors. Calculated thresholds are used to define periods of extreme heat across Florida.ResultsModeling of missing data and imputing missing values can affect the identified periods of extreme heat, through the missing data itself or through the computed thresholds. The differences observed are related to the amount of missingness during June, July, and August, the warmest months of the warm season (April through September).ConclusionsMissing data considerations are important when defining periods of extreme heat. Spatio-temporal methods are recommended for data imputation. A heat wave definition that incorporates information from all monitors is advised.
Highlights
Numerous public health studies have used weather data for the 108 cities included in the National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS) (e.g. [1,2,3])
Funding was available for this project through CD and Modeling of missing data and imputing missing values can affect the identified periods of extreme heat, through the missing data itself or through the computed thresholds
Some have found no evidence of regional differences in health effects due to heat waves [5], others have found differences so great that a significant adverse effect of climate on health can be observed in one region while, in another, no effect or a protective effect is seen [1, 6]
Summary
Numerous public health studies have used weather data for the 108 cities included in the National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS) (e.g. [1,2,3]). One source of confusion is the lack of a uniform definition of a heat wave used in climatechange research studies. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [10] defined a heat wave to be the longest period within a year composed of at least 5 consecutive days with maximum temperatures at least 5°C higher (approximately 9°F higher) than the climatology of the same calendar day. This becomes challenging when different sources use differing numbers of years to define the climatology. Most past research on heat waves has focused on evaluating the aftermath of known heat waves, with minimal consideration of missing exposure information.
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