Fire Risk Model for Fires in Ro-Ro Ship Ro-Ro Spaces

Abstract

In recent years, fire accidents on Ro-Ro ships have led to numerous fatalities and significant economic losses. The response of the crew and the ship's protection systems are crucial in managing these incidents and mitigating their consequences. To assess fire safety improvements, this study has focused on developing and quantifying a risk model that captures the dynamics of a fire starting in a Ro-Ro space. Various risk modelling techniques were reviewed to construct the model, which was then quantified using historical data, simulations, and expert judgments. A Delphi-based, fully digital approach to expert elicitation was introduced, utilizing Microsoft Teams and Microsoft Excel-based questionnaires. This method ensured full anonymity for the experts, reducing the risk of group bias and eliminating the need for travel. To enhance understanding and verify the results, uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were performed. They revealed that the potential loss of life deviated, with 90% confidence, from the calculated mean value by less than 26%. Overall, the questionnaire-based method proved effective for expert elicitation and for quantifying nodes in the risk model, demonstrating its utility in the risk assessment process.