Fire is associated with forest degradation and economic land concessions, but not land conversion in the rapidly transforming Cambodian landscape

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Abstract Cambodia is beset by high deforestation rates and fire frequencies. From 2001–2020, forest cover declined by 34%, and cropland and rubber expanded by 31,401 km2 and 4,530 km2, respectively; meanwhile nearly 8.7 million fires burned 41.6% of the land. Fires may be associated with deliberate land change, stable land management systems, and unplanned forest degradation. We integrated annual land cover and monthly burned area data from 2001–2020 to test three hypotheses. First, if fire is used during land conversion, there would be a detectable pulse in fire activity in the year immediately prior to, and the year of land cover change. Our temporal analysis found statistically elevated burn rates in five of 16 transition tests, however, they were typically <1% outside the predicted range, indicating no practical significance in the association of fire with land cover change. Second, fire prevalence would be lower in land managed for conservation or agricultural production than unclassified or unmanaged land. persistent forest and shrubland burned at significantly higher rates than expected, cropland burned significantly less, burning was almost absent from rubber plantations, and forests in protected areas (PAs) exhibited lower total burn percentages than unclassified land or industrial economic land concessions (ELCs), thus supporting the fire-land management hypothesis. However, total burned area in ELCs was greater than unclassified land for several persistent land cover classes, suggesting that local landowners may prevent fire in commercially valuable private agricultural land, but there may be no such prevention measures in industrial ELCs. Anti-fire policy enforcement in ELCs should be enhanced. Third, forests that converted into (degraded) shrublands would experience increasing fire frequency in the years leading up to transition, a hypothesis we found strong support for through our temporal analysis. Cambodia’s 2013 Law on Fire Prevention and Fire Fighting deputizes the public to enforce its provision, however given that the vast majority of fires occur in persistent forest in state-owned land, collective action problems are likely to hinder its effective implementation.