Abstract
Studies on energy security in the context of relations between European Union (EU) and Russia tend to focus on cases, with an open conflict related to supply, such as “hard” energy weapons, or on only one fuel, often natural gas. However, there is a need to understand the long-term impacts that energy relations have politically, economically and physically, and their linkages between resilience, sustainability and security. We analyse the Finnish-Russian energy relations as a case study, as they are characterised by a non-conflictual relationship. To assess this complex relationship, we apply the interdependence framework to analyse both the energy systems and energy strategies of Finland and Russia, and the energy security issues related to the notable import dependence on one supplier. Moreover, we analyse the plausible development of the energy trade between the countries in three different energy policy scenarios until 2040. The findings of the article shed light on how the trends in energy markets, climate change mitigation and broader societal and political trends could influence Russia’s energy trade relations with countries, such as Finland. Our analysis shows that Finland’s dependence on primary energy imports does not pose an acute energy security threat in terms of sheer supply, and the dependence is unlikely to worsen in the future. However, due to the difficulty in anticipating societal, political, and economic trends, there are possible developments that could affect Finland.
Highlights
The crises associated with the supply of natural gas in 2006 and 2009 stimulated the European Union (EU) to develop a European energy security strategy in 2014 [1]
For example, the East European states, and issues related to outdated energy infrastructure or a lack of connections to global energy markets, securitisation of energy has remained limited in Finland, as has consideration of energy as a foreign policy tool
Finland’s complex relationship with Russia regarding energy trade has raised concerns over whether the dependence on one supplier is an energy security threat for Finland
Summary
The crises associated with the supply of natural gas in 2006 and 2009 stimulated the European Union (EU) to develop a European energy security strategy in 2014 [1]. The EU has made reducing dependence on imported fuels and dominant suppliers its key targets, advancing the EU-level energy market and infrastructure integration and coordination among member states. Finland imports almost two thirds of its primary energy [5], the vast majority of which comes from Finland’s neighbour in the east, Russia. This has sparked debate in Finland concerning whether the low self-sufficiency in energy and the high dependence on one supplier are threats to energy security or merely a sign of mutually beneficial trade relations. The pipeline has become a political issue in many other EU countries [3]
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