Finite horizon analysis of Markov Chains with the Murϕ verifier

Abstract

In this paper we present an explicit disk-based verification algorithm for Probabilistic Systems defining discrete time/finite state Markov Chains. Given a Markov Chain and an integer k (horizon), our algorithm checks whether the probability of reaching an error state in at most k steps is below a given threshold. We present an implementation of our algorithm within a suitable extension of the Murϕ verifier. We call the resulting probabilistic model checker FHP-Murϕ (Finite Horizon ProbabilisticMurϕ). We present experimental results comparing FHP-Murϕ with (a finite horizon subset of) PRISM, a state-of-the-art symbolic model checker for Markov Chains. Our experimental results show that FHP-Murϕ can handle systems that are out of reach for PRISM, namely those involving arithmetic operations on the state variables (e.g. hybrid systems).