Abstract
Variability analysis is used for an instrumented pavement consisting of a thin asphalt surface, granular base, geosynthetics, and a fine grained subgrade. The pavement was modeled with the finite element method using Plaxis software where stationary transient loading and stress dependent material models were incorporated. The results show how significant variability can occur within a pavement built to acceptable standards and that without methods to account for variability, instrumented measurements can be misleading in some instances. Realizing that variability is present is far removed from accounting for it effectively. Asphalt strain changes from 8% to 141% were calculated due to the effects of variability, and vertical sensor positioning within customary installation tolerances was shown to vary strain by + 31%. The use of asphalt strain gauges in thin flexible pavements was shown to be highly prone to error, with variability easily dominating the measurement. Subgrade stress changes from 17% to 45% were calculated from the effects of variability, and vertical sensor positioning with customary installation tolerances was shown to vary pressure by +3%. Subgrade stress variability was less relative to asphalt strain, though it was too high to neglect in analysis.
Published Version
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