Fine Resolution Mapping of Soil Organic Carbon in Croplands with Feature Selection and Machine Learning in Northeast Plain China

Abstract

Unsustainable human management has negative effects on cropland soil organic carbon (SOC), causing a decrease in soil health and the emission of greenhouse gas. Due to contiguous fields, large-scale mechanized operations are widely used in the Northeast China Plain, which greatly improves production efficiency while decreasing the soil quality, especially for SOC. Therefore, an up-to-date SOC map is needed to estimate soil health after long-term cultivation to inform better land management. Using Quantile Regression Forest, a total of 396 soil samples from 132 sampling sites at three soil depth intervals and 40 environmental covariates (e.g., Landsat 8 spectral indices, and WorldClim 2 and MODIS products) selected by the Boruta feature selection algorithm were used to map the spatial distribution of SOC in the cropland of the Northeast Plain at a 90 m spatial resolution. The results showed that SOC increased overall from the southern area to the northern area, with an average of 17.34 g kg−1 in the plough layer (PL) and 13.92 g kg−1 in the compacted layer (CL). At the vertical scale, SOC decreased, with depths getting deeper. The average decrease in SOC from PL to CL was 3.41 g kg−1. Climate (i.e., average temperature, daytime and nighttime land surface temperature, and mean temperature of driest quarter) was the dominant controlling factor, followed by position (i.e., oblique geographic coordinate at 105°), and organism (i.e., the average and variance of net primary productivity in the non-crop period). The average uncertainty was 1.04 in the PL and 1.07 in the CL. The high uncertainty appeared in the area with relatively scattered fields, high altitudes, and complex landforms. This study updated the 90 m resolution cropland SOC maps at spatial and vertical scales, which clarifies the influence of mechanized operations and provides a reference for soil conservation policy-making.