Abstract
Consider a set of n players. We suppose that each game involves two players, that there is some unknown player who wins each game it plays with a probability greater than 1/2, and that our objective is to determine this best player. Under the requirement that the policy employed guarantees a correct choice with a probability of at least some specified value, we look for a policy that has a relatively small expected number of games played before decision. We consider this problem both under the assumption that the best player wins each game with a probability of at least some specified value p0>1/2, and under a Bayesian assumption that the probability that player i wins a game against player j is vivi+vj, where v1,…,vn are the unknown values of n independent and identically distributed exponential random variables. In the former case, we propose a policy where chosen pairs play a match that ends when one of them has had a specified number of wins more than the other; in the latter case, we propose a Thompson sampling type rule.
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