Abstract
This paper presents empirical evidence on factors influencing choices made by members of the Annapolis Group of Liberal Arts colleges regarding whether to operate primarily in-person, primarily online or some flexible alternative during the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020. This paper examines the tradeoff between public health risks and financial standing that school administrators faced when deciding reopening plans. Because in-person instruction at colleges and universities had large effects on COVID-19 case rates, it is critical to understand what caused these decisions. We used binary and multinomial probit models to evaluate an original data set of publicly available data as well as data from the College Crisis Initiative. Binary and multinomial choice model estimates suggest that conditional upon the prevailing level of COVID-19 in their county, financially distressed colleges were approximately 20 percentage points more likely to opt for primarily in-person operations than less financially distressed colleges. These choices highlight an important potential tradeoff between public health and financial concerns present in the higher education sector and emphasize the need for public spending to mitigate adverse health outcomes if a similar situation occurs again.
Highlights
During the summer of 2020, colleges and universities faced the challenging and unprecedented task of evaluating the risks associated with COVID-19 and subsequently deciding whether they should open their campuses for in-person learning during the fall semester
We focus on the decisions made by the 123 members of the Annapolis Group of Liberal Arts colleges and use an original data set to answer the central question: what were the relative roles of economic and public health considerations in determining if, and to what extent, a given U.S Liberal Arts college elected to bring its students back to campus for in-person instruction? In particular, we focus on the roles of the prevailing COVID-19 health risks and the financial condition of the college at the time the
We incorporate variables capturing the potential risk of COVID-19 transmission in the surrounding county (Popdensity), a variable capturing potential losses related to vacant college housing (Studenthousing), and a measure of the flexibility in labor costs (Tenuredfac)
Summary
During the summer of 2020, colleges and universities faced the challenging and unprecedented task of evaluating the risks associated with COVID-19 and subsequently deciding whether they should open their campuses for in-person learning during the fall semester. Using a limited amount of information to predict a very uncertain future, many institutions elected to close their campuses almost entirely and transition to online learning. Still others proposed a moderate approach, only allowing some combination of students in select grades and students facing select circumstances to learn in-person. Crisis Initiative at Davidson College reported the reopening plans of the 2958 colleges, community colleges, and universities in the United States (C2i 2020).
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