Financial and non-financial investments: comparative econometric analysis of the impact on economic dynamics

Abstract

The purpose of the study is to determine the degree of influence of investments in financial and non-financial assets on the rate of economic growth in a comparative aspect for the US, German and Russian economies. It is determined by the level of development of the financial sector, which can either support growth or slow it down. The methodology of the study is a structural analysis and an econometric approach which allows to build econometric models when the dynamics of GDP and types of investments, to the structural formula as a model to evaluate the contribution of each type of investment in economic growth. A regression analysis was used to show the relationship between financial and non—financial investments, the growth rate of the economy and the financial market bias parameter proposed in the framework of the analysis, an increase in which indicates an expansion of the financial market's influence, a decrease—a reduction in such influence. The built econometric models made it possible to give a forecast estimate of GDP dynamics in the unfolding recession of 2020–2021, when reducing financial and non-financial investments, identifying together with the application of the structural formula and the possible change in the contribution of investments to the rate of economic growth, when their own rate changes. The study also revealed a sharp increase in the financial market bias in the Russian economy compared to the United States and Germany, which significantly affects the rate of economic growth, depending on changes in financial investment. This unbalanced influence requires macroeconomic policy measures to correct the structural imbalance between financial and non-financial investments.