Fighting the Disease or Manipulating the Data? Democracy, State Capacity, and the COVID-19 Pandemic

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abstract: In this article, the authors discuss and analyze how regime type and state capacity shape the abilities and incentives of political leaders to respond to covid-19. They suggest that a complementary relationship exists between democracy and state capacity, both in terms of mitigating the adverse consequences of the pandemic, such as deaths, and the honest reporting of these consequences. Using a recent global data set on officially reported covid-19 deaths and estimated deaths based on excess mortality, the authors present evidence that supports different implications from their argument. Empirically, democracies have much higher officially reported death tolls than do autocracies, a result driven by underreporting in autocracies. In high-capacity states, democracies have fewer covid-19 deaths than do autocracies. State capacity generally seems to mitigate both deaths and underreporting, but these relationships are stronger in democracies. Countries that combine democracy with high state capacity experience fewer covid-19 deaths and provide more accurate tolls of the pandemic’s consequences.