Abstract
Long-run impact of economic growth on fertility trends is ambiguous and sensitive for in-time variations. Noticeably, over last decades, economic growth has led to significant falls in total fertility rates in many countries. However, recently, in high-income economies a kind of ‘fertility rebound’ emerged (Goldstein, 2009; Luci and Thevenon, 2011; Day, 2012), which supports the hypothesis that reversal trends in total fertility rates are mainly attributed to economic growth. The paper unveils the relationship between total fertility rate changes and economic growth in 18 selected countries with fertility rebound observed, over the period 1970–2011, and detects the GDP-threshold at which the fertility rebound emerged. To report on the relationship we deploy longitudinal data analysis assuming non-linearity between examined variables. The data applied are exclusively derived from World Development Indicators 2013. Our main findings support the hypothesis on U-shaped relationship between the total fertility rate and economic growth in analyzed countries in 1970-2011. Along with the previous, we project the minimum level of GDP per capita (GDP-threshold) when the fertility rebound takes place.
Highlights
IntroductionIn 1994, Hirschman (1994) concluded that the picture arising from empirical evidence on long-term changes in fertility (measured, by convention, as period total fertility rate – TFR) is ambiguous and does not provide clear justification about its direct determinants
In 1994, Hirschman (1994) concluded that the picture arising from empirical evidence on long-term changes in fertility is ambiguous and does not provide clear justification about its direct determinants
The paper was designed to uncover the relationship between changing total fertility rates and economic growth in 18 high-income economies over the period 1970–2011, and to depict the GDP-threshold at which the fertility rebound emerged
Summary
In 1994, Hirschman (1994) concluded that the picture arising from empirical evidence on long-term changes in fertility (measured, by convention, as period total fertility rate – TFR) is ambiguous and does not provide clear justification about its direct determinants. Whether people decide on one or another, depends predominantly on how they value children, what the well-established social norms and attitudes, or individual preferences are As it is claimed by some scholars, see for instances the works by Galor and Weil (1996, 1999), Kohler, et al (2002a, 2002b), Deopke (2004), Caldwell and Schindlmayr (2003), Butler (2004), Morgan and Taylor (2006), Klasen and Lamanna (2009), Mills, et al (2011), the total fertility rate and economic development are rather linked by a two-way, than a one-way, relationship. The hypothesis on a potential positive relationship between fertility trends and economic development – labelled as ‘U-shaped fertility dynamics’ (Day, 2013; Luci-Greulich & Thévenon, 2013), is supported by evidence on growing total fertility rates mainly in high-income economies (Myrskylä, et al, 2011; Myrskylä, et al, 2013)
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