Abstract

Research background: The COVID-19 pandemic, which hit the world in the first quarter of 2020, has impacted almost every area of people's lives. Many states have introduced varying degrees of measures to prevent its spread. Most of these measures were, or still are, aimed at reducing or completely stopping the operation of shops and services, or in some cases, also the large manufacturing companies. However, as many companies have failed to cope with these restrictions, unemployment has risen in almost all EU countries. A similar situation was also observed in Slovakia, where the mentioned measures also had a significant impact on unemployment.
 Purpose of the article: In this study, we deal with the quantification of the impact of a pandemic, or more precisely, anti-pandemic measures, on the development of the registered unemployment rate in Slovakia.
 Methods: This quantification is based on the counterfactual method of before-after comparison, which is one of the most widely used methods in the field of impact assessments and brings very accurate results, based on real data. In the analysis, we use officially published data on the unemployment rate in Slovakia during the years 2013?2020 on a monthly basis. Such a long time series, using statistical methods of its decomposition and modelling of its trend, will allow predicting the development of the unemployment rate in Slovakia, assuming a counterfactual situation of no pandemic, and compare this development with the actual situation that occurred during 2020.
 Findings & Value added: The study results indicate an increase in the unemployment rate in Slovakia during 2020 by 2?3% compared to the trend of its development, which would have occurred without a pandemic. Given the counterfactual method used, this difference can be described as the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The results of the study can be used in practice in the design and implementation of measures introduced to mitigate the impacts of the pandemic on unemployment and, in the long-term perspective, also to eliminate these effects as much as possible. It can also be used as a theoretical tool in conducting impact assessments, which have so far been carried out very rarely in Slovakia.

Highlights

  • The COVID-19 pandemic and its global impact affect all spheres of life in modern society, and for the first time in recent history, we are facing such a global problem

  • We focused on the period from January 2013 to March 2020, which was the month when the first diagnosed cases of COVID-19 appeared in Slovakia

  • The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic largely influence the economic performance of the economy in the Slovak Republic

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Summary

Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic and its global impact affect all spheres of life in modern society, and for the first time in recent history, we are facing such a global problem. The world economy and the economies of individual countries must face the nature of the disease, its intense spread, and subsequent drastic anti-pandemic measures. The Slovak economy is very strongly affected by the pandemic and its consequences. Due to the impact of the disease on human health, the crisis caused by this disease has a negative impact on the economic performance of individual countries around the world. We can rank the Slovak Republic among the most affected countries in the context of the economic downturn and employment, when the positive development on the labour market, which has persisted so far, has been disrupted. After a long-term declining unemployment rate, it has started to rise rapidly since March 2020

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