Fertility of southern black farmers in 1900: evidence and speculation.

Abstract

This paper examines variation in the fertility of southern black farmers near the turn of the century. The data source is a 1 in 750 sample of households taken from the 1900 manuscript census. Environmental and individual character istics are used in regression analyses to predict the number of children ever born to married women between the ages of 15 and 44. Comparable results are presented for southern native white farmers. The results show substantially dif ferent predictors for the two groups. The fertility of blacks responded positively to the presence of manufacturing activity in their county, while whites exhibited the opposite relationship. Further, land shortages significantly depressed white fertility, but were unrelated to black reproduction. A possible interpretation of these discrepant results is offered, emphasizing the inferior social position of and restricted opportunities for southern blacks in the late 1800s. Finally, it is con cluded that a mix of voluntary and involuntary forces was probably responsible for the rural black fertility transition which began in the late nineteenth century.