Fertility model evolution: A survey on mathematical models of age-specific fertility with application to Nepalese and Malaysian data

Abstract

Fertility pattern analysis and modeling to smooth age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) form a well-established research field that holds particular importance for Asian countries. In developed nations, ASFRs typically display a bimodal skewed fertility curve, whereas, in developing countries, they usually exhibit a unimodal skewed fertility curve that diverges from the normal one. For decades, demographic experts worldwide have been interested in creating models using deterministic and stochastic approaches to represent these fertility curves. In this regard, parametric and non-parametric models have been created, with the latter providing a better fit for ASFR data. This research investigates the evolution of fertility models aimed at smoothing ASFRs. It explores suitable alternative models for countries with fast-declining, unimodal, and skewed fertility curves of ASFRs, such as Nepal and Malaysia. Nepal’s fertility rate is transitioning from a high level toward the replacement rate (2.1) at the year 2021; meanwhile, Malaysia’s fertility rate (1.7) in the year 2021 has dropped below the replacement rate. Given the lack of a universally applicable model for ASFR pattern variation, this study proposes the Kumaraswamy log-logistic distribution as a promising model to represent the ASFRs of Nepal and Malaysia accurately. Various approaches, including the Akaike information criterion, and Bayesian information criterion, are employed to validate the fitting of the proposed model.