Fertility Estimates for Bangladesh Based on Birth-History Data

Abstract

Data from the Bangladesh Fertility Survey (BFS) which occurred during 1975-1976 as part of the World Fertility Survey were used to generate fertility estimates with the help of the Lexis diagram. Demographers noted a substantial decline in total fertility rates (7.3-5.2) for the years 1971-1975. The 1971 war of liberation and the widespread famine in 1974 may have contributed to the decline. Vital registration data from the former Cholera Research Laboratory indicate that the total fertility rate (TFR) has been climbing annually since 1975 (4.3 6.2 and 6.7 in 1975 1976 and 1977 respectively). Additionally fertility in the period 5-10 years prior to the survey was overestimated because the women had a tendency to misplace earlier births forward and recent births backward in time while reporting events. Observed fertility rates beyond 15 years before the survey were even more doubtful. Therefore using birth history data beyond 15 years for a developing country are not useful in conducting demographic analyses. The birth history data used in this study were not well reported and well imputed thereby distorting the reported levels of and trends in fertility. Yet it still offers a good idea about the levels and trends in fertility in Bangladesh although not an accurate view. A variety of demographic models have been used to estimate total fertility in Bangladesh and their TFRs do not agree with each other. Demographers had also applied adjustment procedures to these models and they have helped illustrate trends but not adequate levels of fertility. Additional research on possible effects and interactions of various response errors on the estimates of fertility should be done.