Fertility, economic development, and suicides among women in India.

Abstract

Indian states at greater levels of economic development report more suicides. This relation appears stronger among women relative to men. We test the hypothesis, suggested in the literature, that conflict between rapid economic growth and inadequate female autonomy (approximated using total fertility rate) varies positively with female suicides. We used state-level data on female suicides for all 35 Indian states and union territories, from 2001 to 2011, from the National Crime Records Bureau. We specified, as our outcome, age-adjusted female suicides per 100,000 population per state-year. We retrieved data on key covariates, namely, gross state domestic product (GSDP) per capita, total fertility rate (TFR), and other control variables from multiple national surveys and publicly available data sources. We examined whether and to what extent age-adjusted female suicides (per 100,000 population) correspond with total fertility rate (lower TFR indicates greater female autonomy and vice versa) within the context of greater economic development (GSDP per capita). Linear longitudinal mixed effect regressions controlled for state-specific random intercepts, son preference (male:female sex ratio at birth), literacy gap (percentage difference between literate males and females), access to health systems (institutional deliveries), female to male employment ratio, and linear time trends. At constant levels of GSDP per capita, a one unit decline in TFR corresponds with 0.27 fewer female suicides per 100,000 population (P value = 0.008). Sensitivity tests indicate that this relation does not hold for male age-adjusted suicides (per 100,000 population). Our findings, if replicated, indicate that at constant levels of economic development, lower TFR (indicating greater female autonomy) may reduce suicide risk among women.