Fertility Decline and Family Change in India: A Demographic Perspective

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between fertility decline and selected patterns of the Indian family in the late 20th century. Much of the analysis presented in the study is based on secondary data collected and compiled by various organizations, including the three most recent National Family Health Surveys, 1990-92, 1998-99, and 2005-06. I find that since the mid-1970s, fertility decline in India has been impressive (falling from about 6 to 3 children per woman within an interval of 30 years). Its pace has slowed down in recent years and regional differences have remained largely unchanged. In 2003-05, the fertility rate varied from below replacement level for Goa, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, and four southern states (Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu) to about four children per woman for Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. In general, most Indian couples–even in low fertility states–have more children than they would like. The two-child family is the most desired. Although the one child family is increasingly accepted, it remains largely marginal while the prevalence of voluntary childlessness is virtually nonexistent. The average age at marriage has increased over the years, yet early marriages continue to be prevalent in many parts of the country. The median age at marriage for women is as low as 16 years (in 2003-05) in Andhra Pradesh and Bihar. The average age of women when they have their first child has barely changed–staying below age 20–over several generations. However, the age when they complete their childbearing has declined, resulting in a compression of the reproductive life span. Couples continue to accept female sterilization as a means to stop having children rather than choose other methods of contraception for the purpose of child spacing. Most couples are increasingly opting for a smaller number of children, yet they would like to make sure that one of them is a boy. Thus many continue to have children until they have a boy, although this pattern has become less pronounced among couples of younger generations.