Abstract
This paper analyzes fertility differentials in south India in terms of economic and social development. The areas analyzed here are the 4 southern states: Andra Pradesh Kerala Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. The region is examined 1st with factors analysis using 33 variables concerning the indicators of the demographic structure of the labor force agricultural structure education medical care and religion. The analysis extracted 5 factors: 1) labor force characteristics 2) the level of social development 3) family structure 4) agricultural characteristics and 5) urbanity. The industrial structure of the region is characteristically labor-intensive agriculture. Women and children typically participate in agriculture and most of them are less educated. Regression analysis using variables from the factor analysis extracted 5 variables: 1) child labor 2) the female literacy rate and the population per doctor 3) the proportion of never married women 4) population per cultivated land and 5) the labor force participation rate in the primary industry and the proportion urban. Using these as independent variables the regression equation for the child-woman ratio is estimated. The model explains 48.4% of the total variance in the child-woman ratio in the 4 states. Among variables child labor and population density per cultivated land are statistically significant. The estimated result shows that the necessity of having a large labor force in the agricultural sector makes the fertility rate higher. 3rdly the authors estimate the regression equation including only those variables which are statistically significant in the model: child labor and population per cultivated land. The educational level is also added to these variables. The model cannot explain the regional variances of the child-woman ratio for Kerala and Tamil Nadu. In Andra Pradesh the necessity of child labor in agriculture makes fertility higher. In Karnataka education has a positive effect on fertility decline.
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