Abstract
How do criminal justice interactions affect political participation and through what mechanisms? In this new era of criminal justice expansion, the number of people who have had interactions and who will interact with the criminal justice system has increased significantly. Notwithstanding the abundant scholarship detailing the expansion of the carceral state, the subsequent increases in carceral contact, and the negative externalities of punitivity, we know little about the mechanisms that drive the observed negative political consequences. We know what is happening but not how it is happening. I argue that predacious criminal justice policies are having a negative interpretative policy feedback effect on the well‐being of those contacted. First, I find that feelings of well‐being are strongly associated with political participation. Second, using structural equation modeling, I offer evidence that carceral contact has a strong direct effect on well‐being and a strong indirect effect on political participation mediated through measures of well‐being. Twenty‐three percent of the political suppression effect is an indirect effect of carceral contact mediated through well‐being.
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