Feeding china: a confident view

Abstract

Lester R. Brown's recent argument, that large Chinese grain imports could drive world prices to dangerously high levels by the year 2030, is mistaken on three counts. First, Brown is badly mistaken to argue that China's own grain production will decline by 20% in the next three decades; the consensus among more careful analysts is that Chinese grain production will continue to increase. Second, Brown is wrong to characterize Chinese grain imports, when they do occur, as something to worry about; increased reliance on imports is going to be the best way for China to protect its rural environment and ensure continued income growth and improved nutrition for its population in the years ahead. Third, Brown is wrong to characterize international grain markets as incapable of servicing China's larger import needs; even if those needs should grow very large, real prices in international grain markets are likely to continue their long term trend of decline.