Features of the Structure of Age-related Expenses in the Russian Federation

Abstract

Changes in the demographic structure of the population (aging of the population) can directly or indirectly lead to the transformation of keysocio-economic indicators. This may affect the structure of revenuesand expenditures of the state budget, as well as be reflected in somesectors of the economy. In the foreign literature, a significant number of studies are devoted to the study of the influence of the age structure of the population on the economic indicators of the country. However,in Russia this problem is poorly understood. The age composition ofthepopulationalsoaffectsthecharacteristicsofsocio-economicpolicy.Population growth in the most productive ages leads to an increase inper capita income, while in the least productive ages to a decreasein per capita income [18]. The greatest growth in the working-agepopulationintheliteratureisusuallydefinedasthefirstdemographicdividend that was overcome for most developed countries. Currently,developedcountriesareata stage when there is a significant increaseintheburdenofolderpeople.However,accordingtoscientists,intheseconditions, an effective policy in the field of income and expendituremanagement can support the country’s economic growth. This effectis usually called the second demographic dividend. However, in the case of insufficient consumption at older ages, a decrease in totalconsumption can be observed, and, as a consequence, a decreasein output. Thus, in Russia there is a tendency towards aging of the population and low consumption in older ages.The purposeof the study is to construct an age profile of populationexpenditures, as well as to analyze the age structure of populationexpendituresbasedondatafromtheRussianMonitoringofEconomicSituation and Health survey conducted by the Higher School ofEconomics.Materialsandmethods.Inordertoconstructageprofilesofhouseholdexpendituresandthenanalyzetheagestructureofhouseholdexpenditures, we considered surveys of the Russian Monitoring ofEconomic Situation and Health, conducted by the Higher School of Economics from 2010 to 2018. Before constructing age profiles ofpopulationexpenditures,a primary statistical analysis of the databaseswas carried out and anomalous observations were excluded. Theobtained age profiles were smoothed using the Friedman method. Itis important to note that population expenditure surveys are collectedon a per household basis and not per family member. Thus, beforeconstructing age profiles of household expenditures, it is necessary toreallocatehouseholdexpendituresforeachfamilymember.Thepaperexamines the features of the methods of redistribution of expendituresof the population. When constructing age profiles of populationexpenditures, the recommendations of the National IntergenerationalTransfer Accounts project developed by Ronald Lee and AndrewMason will be used. Data processing was performed in the IBMSPSS and R software package.Results.When constructing age profiles of population expenditures, there is an increase in expenditures in age groups over 50 in2018comparedto2010.Conclusionsaredrawnaboutchangesin expenditures on food, durable goods, services, utilities, andhealthservices.Theshareofexpensesforfoodproductsrangesfrom38.6%to43.7%.Thesmallestshareofspendingonfoodisobservedin the ages from 0 to 9 years (less than 40%). Inotheragegroups,theshareofspendingonfoodhasnosignificantfluctuationsandisabout42%.Thelargestshareofspendingondurablegoodsfallsontheagegroupsfrom0 to 19 years (about17%).After20years,thereisa gradual decrease in the share ofspendingondurablegoods(to6.6%in the age group 75-59). Intermsofservicecategory,thelargestshareofexpensesfallsonagegroups50-54(18%).In the age groups over 55 years old,theshareofexpendituresonservicesdecreases(to10.7%in the age group 75-59 years old). The expenditures for the category ofutilitiesin the age groups from 0 to 49 years do not change, andthenthereisa gradual increase in the share of expenses. There isa high proportion of spending on health services in the age groupsfrom0 to 4 and in the age groups over 60. The results obtained are necessary when constructing forecast values for assessingmacroeconomicindicators,planningthestatebudget.Conclusion.The article provides a review of foreign and Russianliteratureonassessingtheimpactoftheagestructureofthepopulationoneconomicgrowth,calculatesthe ageprofileofhouseholdexpendituresin the Russian Federation, and considers the agestructure of household expenditures for 2010 and 2018 by five-yearage intervals. The results obtained allow us to draw conclusionsabout the different structure of population expenditures dependingon age groups.